多地气温将创今冬新低：沈阳将破-25℃，专家释疑寒流连袭

1月5日，小寒节气。随着新一股冷空气抵达我国，中央气象台1月5日6时发布寒潮蓝色预警。据中央气象台预报，1月5日20时至8日20时，我国中东部地区将遭遇大范围降温天气，我国东北地区南部、华北、黄淮等地部分地区最低气温将创入冬以来新低。

一降再降，多地最低气温将创入冬以来新低

入冬以来，冷空气频频南下进入我国，中央气象台此前已分别在2020年12月12日至14日、2020年12月27日至31日发过两轮寒潮预警。

根据预报，此次冷空气过程将于1月5日夜间自北向南影响我国中东部大部分地区。5日20时至8日20时，受较强冷空气影响，我国中东部地区气温将普遍下降6℃至8℃，其中华北西部、黄淮东部、江淮东部和江南东部等地的部分地区降温幅度可达10℃以上。山西、山东、浙江降温幅度都比较大。

1月5日，中央气象台首席预报员方翀向澎湃新闻（www.thepaper.cn）表示，尽管此次降温幅度比2020年12月27日至31日的“跨年寒潮”稍小，但多地经过前一轮降温的“碾压”，本身“基础温度”较低，预计此轮降温后我国东北地区南部、华北、黄淮东部等地部分地区最低气温将创下今冬以来新低。其中，北京、大连、济南等地最低气温将低于-15℃，沈阳最低气温将跌破-25℃。

方翀表示，此轮降温过后，最低气温0℃线将南压至江南南部到华南北部，-10℃线将南压至秦岭到江淮东部一线。

多地将遭遇持续低温考验

除了在“基础低温”上再“叠加”低温，此次冷空气过程中，“冷风吹拂”可能会让人们体感更加“冻人”。

根据中央气象台预报，北方地区风力强劲，长江流域及其以北地区将有4级至6级偏北风，阵风7级至9级，特别是渤海、黄海及东海海域会出现8级到9级大风，阵风可达10级到11级。

不过，方翀表示，此次冷空气过程带来的雨雪并不多，预计5日至6日，新疆西南部、西藏西部、青海南部等地有中到大雪，局地暴雪。6日至7日，甘肃南部、陕西南部、湖北西部及西南地区东部、江南大部等地有小雪或雨夹雪，江南东南部和华南等地有小雨。

值得关注的是，此轮降温后，我国中东部大部分地区可能在未来10天都会处于气温偏低的状态，除了因为前期基础温度非常低，10日至11日还会有一股弱冷空气继续南下，回暖可能尚需等待。

冷空气不断侵扰的气候背景

据国家气候中心统计，入冬以来（2020年12月1日-2021年1月3日），2020年12月有两次冷空气过程影响我国，分别是12月13日至15日（全国型强冷空气）和12月29日至1月1日（全国型寒潮）。

与历史同期相比，尽管冷空气（包括寒潮）次数并不偏多，但这两次都是全国型冷空气过程，影响范围大，冷空气强度较强。

对此，国家气候中心气候预测室研究员袁媛解释说，“入冬以来，欧亚中高纬被‘西高东低’的经向型环流控制，东亚冬季风偏强，且这样的环流型在12月月内基本没有太大的变化，持续的‘西高东低’经向型环流和持续偏强的冬季风是导致2020年12月以来我国中东部大部地区气温偏低的直接原因。”

此外，赤道中东太平洋最近即将达到峰值的拉尼娜现象和秋季北极海冰偏少是两个不容忽视的信号。历史统计分析表明，在多数的拉尼娜年冬季欧亚中高纬大气环流经向度较大，影响我国的冷空气活动比常年更加频繁，且强度偏强，我国中东部大部地区气温较常年同期偏低的概率也较大。

而2020年9月北极海冰异常偏少（历史第二少）。已有研究指出，9月北极海冰偏少有利于冬季西伯利亚高压偏强。2020年夏季监测显示，北极地区大气环流表现出典型的AD负位相，其模态指数达到历史最低值，因此这也有利于今年冬季西伯利亚高压偏强，东亚冬季风偏强。

“总的来说，导致目前我国中东部大部气温偏低的最直接原因是‘西高东低’的经向型环流和偏强的东亚冬季风，拉尼娜和秋季北极海冰偏少为今年冬季风偏强提供了重要的背景条件。”袁媛说。

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7845944379.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=42

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846207980.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=43

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846216190.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=72

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846216026.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=71

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846215917.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=70

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846215834.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=69

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846215713.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=68

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846215526.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=67

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846215436.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=66

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846214558.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=65

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846214135.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=64

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7845942482.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=39

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7845942213.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=38

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7845941947.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=37

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7845944132.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=41

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846240215.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=41

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846240134.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=40

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846240064.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=39

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846239192.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=38

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846239078.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=37

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846238919.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=36

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846238822.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=35

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846238746.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=34

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846238644.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=33

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846236195.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=12

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846235917.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=11

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846235800.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=10

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846235574.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=9

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846235480.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=8

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846234842.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=7

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846234742.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=6

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846234579.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=5

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846234542.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=4

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846234511.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=3

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254862.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=38

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254730.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=37

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254637.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=36

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254606.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=35

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254539.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=34

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254499.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=33

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254438.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=32

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254363.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=31

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254267.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=30

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254154.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=29

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846252476.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=8

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846252428.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=7

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846252370.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=6

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846252335.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=5

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846252301.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=4

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846252122.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=3

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846251933.html#stat=y_new.profile.create_playlist.click&dirid=2

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7845944379.html?42

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846207980.html?43

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846216190.html?72

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846216026.html?71

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846215917.html?70

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846215834.html?69

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846215713.html?68

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846215526.html?67

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846215436.html?66

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846214558.html?65

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846214135.html?64

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7845942482.html?39

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7845942213.html?38

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7845941947.html?37

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7845944132.html?41

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846240215.html?41

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846240134.html?40

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846240064.html?39

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846239192.html?38

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846239078.html?37

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846238919.html?36

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846238822.html?35

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846238746.html?34

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846238644.html?33

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846236195.html?12

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846235917.html?11

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846235800.html?10

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846235574.html?9

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846235480.html?8

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846234842.html?7

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846234742.html?6

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846234579.html?5

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846234542.html?4

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846234511.html?3

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254862.html?38

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254730.html?37

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254637.html?36

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254606.html?35

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254539.html?34

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254499.html?33

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254438.html?32

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254363.html?31

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254267.html?30

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254154.html?29

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846252476.html?8

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846252428.html?7

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846252370.html?6

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846252335.html?5

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846252301.html?4

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846252122.html?3

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846251933.html?2

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7845944379.html   42

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846207980.html   43

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846216190.html   72

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846216026.html   71

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846215917.html   70

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846215834.html   69

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846215713.html   68

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846215526.html   67

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846215436.html   66

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846214558.html   65

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846214135.html   64

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7845942482.html   39

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7845942213.html   38

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7845941947.html   37

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7845944132.html   41

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846240215.html   41

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846240134.html   40

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846240064.html   39

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846239192.html   38

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846239078.html   37

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846238919.html   36

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846238822.html   35

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846238746.html   34

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846238644.html   33

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846236195.html   12

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846235917.html   11

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846235800.html   10

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846235574.html   9

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846235480.html   8

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846234842.html   7

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846234742.html   6

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846234579.html   5

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846234542.html   4

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846234511.html   3

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254862.html   38

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254730.html   37

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254637.html   36

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254606.html   35

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254539.html   34

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254499.html   33

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254438.html   32

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254363.html   31

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254267.html   30

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846254154.html   29

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846252476.html   8

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846252428.html   7

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846252370.html   6

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846252335.html   5

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846252301.html   4

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846252122.html   3

y.qq.com/n/yqq/playlist/7846251933.html   2